Iraq's fiscal exposure · 2026
The accumulating gap: March to May
Monthly oil revenue measured against Iraq's salary, pension and welfare obligation of ~$5.45bn
Monthly oil revenue vs the salary line
Scale: $5.45bn = full width
March first war month
~$2.0bn
~$2bn covers 37%
gap: ~$3.45bn
April official SOMO figure
$1.087bn
$1.09bn covers 20%
gap: $4.36bn
May estimated, final SOMO pending
~$1.0bn
~$1bn covers 18%
gap: ~$4.45bn
Salary line covered by oil revenue
37%
of monthly obligation
March
20%
of monthly obligation
April
18%
of monthly obligation
May (est.)
Cumulative position · March through May 2026
Total oil revenue
~$4.1bn
Total obligation
~$16.35bn
Cumulative shortfall
~-$12.3bn